Republic Services stock analysis – FREE

Dear visitor, in this article, I am going to give you a brief overview, why I own RSG stock, by doing a Republic Services stock analysis.

My current portfolio was shown in this blogpost https://streetsmartcap.com/2026/01/24/portfolio-overview/

Republic Services is a waste management company, founded 1981 in Phoenix, the main owner at date of writing is Bill Gates Cascade Investment LLC. They own around 35,1% of the company.

The company operates in a rather boring industry picking up trash as the main source of revenue. Not complicated, and owned by a famous business person. Two aspects I instantly liked. Cascade investments is a shareholder since at least 2003. So their focus is long term, Michael Larsen, the portfolio manager at Cascade has a board seat in Republic Services. Another plus.

But why is RSG stock falling? An analysis.

It seems like RSG stock has missed the revenue estimates by Wallstreet. -> Wallstreet consensus for Q3 2025 was 4.25 bio. USD, while RSG made 4.21 bio. USD. A small deficit. And compared with last year the revenue is still 3,3% plus, year over year.

The other thing is my personal opinion, maybe defensive stocks aren´t attractive at the moment because of AI. Anything that has to do with AI is surging at the moment, followed by gold stocks and the defense sector.

Let´s do a deep dive, starting with where the money comes from for Republic services.

RSGs Revenue breakdown looks like this:

The whole waste management market for Canada and the US was estimated to be around 160 bio. USD in 2024. While Republic Services was having a revenue of 16.06 bio. USD.

That means RSG has a market share of around 10%. A lot of place for growth. Additionaly it is estimated that the waste management market will grow with a CAGR of 5.2 % until 2032 in the US. The USA are the biggest producer of waste, with an estimated population growth in the next years. More people equates more waste. A good analysis over the industry and an outlook is delivered by

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/us-waste-management-market-report

Customer wise RSG has more than 13 Mio customers. Who pay for the fuel surcharges via their bills. So oil prices aren´t a problem for the fleet. More interestingly the customer base is 94% the same compared to 2024. Meaning the business is sticky for customers.

I looked at Las Vegas, a city where RSG is operating. Using single family home prices for comparison.

The fee for waste disposal was around 17,31USD per month for the period of 2022-2023.

While in the period 2025-2026 customers had to pay around 19,10USD for single family homes per month, as price for a bin.

The price is rising by 3,3% per year in my estimation. The company seems to be able to give inflationary trends over to the customer, while revenues are still growing. Meaning there is no big price sensitivity.

That is nice bla bla, but what about the fundamentals?

The Republic services stock analysis misses some fundamentals until now.

For answering this question I crunched some numbers, using Return on invested Capital and looking at the operating income margin. For the year 2025 I have been using my numbers for the final calculation. Because there have been only numbers until Q3. But RSG is quite predictable. Because trash is getting produced the whole year. Despite some spikes in summer, through hurricanes, construction and so on.

The operation margin is going up. A good sign, means the business is becoming more profitable.

For ROIC I looked at the most frequent numbers and estimating Q4. Giving me a ROIC of around 7.4

As the ROIC itself is not meaning much, we will compare it to WACC, with around 6%.

That means, RSG is creating value. The money generated is over the price of capital employed.

The numbers are indicating profitability, and a widening margin.

But what about the valuation? Is the stock cheap or expensive? And what about the competition?

This questions will be answered in Part 2. Stay tuned.

Disclaimer: The information provided is NOT financial advice. I am not a financial adviser, accountant or the like. This information is purely from my own due diligence and an expression of my thoughts, my opinions based on my personal experiences, and the way I transact.